文件交换

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SimCOVID 6.0

version 6.19 (55.6 MB) by 伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜
此软件包用于以一般化、简单和有效的方式模拟、跟踪和估计COVID-19在全球范围内的传播。
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更新2020年12月29日

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作品简介:
----------------
本工作提供了用于模拟、跟踪和预测COVID-19爆发的开源计算机模拟程序。这些程序是在Simulink和MATLAB(两个独立金宝app但相关的程序)中构建的，旨在用于教育和研究研究。它不针对任何其他原因，如医疗或商业目的。该程序中使用的数学模型是由一组微分代数方程表示的SIR、SEIR和SEIRD模型。可以很容易地对其进行修改，以开发针对该问题的新模型。这个包以一种普遍、简单、有效的方式模拟了世界各地的所有疫情。感染率和复发率函数被视为常数、变量或两者的组合。此外，采用自适应神经模糊推理系统对模型进行训练并预测其输出。和其他开源程序一样，这个包没有任何保证。请您自担风险。

数据来源:
------------------
编写了一个简单的脚本，从下面网站提供的excel表格中提取每个国家的数据，并每日更新。您只需要输入国家名称并运行模型。你可以很容易地编辑这些程序供自己使用。包括世界上所有国家。
（1）https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
（2）https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data

SimCOVID由两个独立但相关的程序组成:
MATLAB版本:
-----------------------
一些MATLAB程序与不同的版本可用的各种模型，包括SIR和SEIR表示。这些程序用于:
(1)参数估计
(2)跟踪现有数据
(3)预测未来价差
您可以编辑代码、添加新的微分方程、为输入定义新的函数(如感染率和恢复率)，并为您的模型和使用构建GUI。

金宝app仿真软件版本:
-----------------------
在MATLAB中创建的相同的基本模型可以在Simulink中使用方框图显示。金宝app此外，建立了自适应神经模糊推理系统，以取代模型中的微分方程，预测未来的疫情。对于不同版本的Simulink，相同的程序保存在以下版本:R2018a, R201金宝app8b, R2019a, R2019b, R2020a。

预印本出版物:
---------------------------
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063354v2
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340600580_SimCOVID5_Short-_Medium-_and_Long-Term_Estimation_SIR_and_SEIR_Models_-_Worldwide_Countries
https://search.bvsalud.org/global-literature-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/resource/en/ppmedrxiv-20063354

视频:
--------------------------
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy_mnoaxHto

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRxNQFRs3bY

引用作为

Ismael阿(2020)。SimCOVID 6.0(//www.tatmou.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/75025-simcovid-6-0)， MATLAB中央文件交换。检索．

意见及评分(14）

艾比McKann

卡洛斯·穆尼斯

harendra辛格

米兰巴蒂斯塔

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

数据来源将人口年份从2018年改为2019年。如果您下载并使用新数据，请更新代码中的相关行:
“popData2018”到“popData2019”。

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

确保您的excel表格在代码所在的文件夹中，并确保其名称。这就是错误消息告诉你的。

harendra辛格

我得到以下错误时，试图运行您的代码。
使用readtable时出错(第216行)
无法打开文件
“covid - 19 -地理disbtribution -世界- 2020 - 05 - 30. - txt”。

SEIR_Long_Term错误(第6行)
COVID19_Data =
readtable(“covid - 19 -地理disbtribution -世界- 2020 - 05 - 30”,
“ReadVariableNames”,真正的);

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

对于估计，从一个较低的值“MaxNumChanges”(> 1)开始，即2、3、4、5，等等。如果有足够的数据，或者疫情超过了峰值，可以增加它。3 - 5个典型值。

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

要估计未来的疫情，只需将模拟时间更改为大于报告病例最后一天的值。
(请参阅文件Generalized_Method中的注释)。
文件中还以注释的形式提到了一些主题。例如，在3-10之间选择s型函数的数量。如果您选择了大量的s型函数，您将让最后的模拟值影响预测，这不是首选。

suhail suhail

如何使用这个模型进行未来预测

harendra辛格

谢谢Ismael的回复。良好的工作。用新版本(R2020a)的Simulink创建的文件夹'Newly_Added2'。金宝app这个文件夹与旧版本的Matlab不兼容。请创建上述文件夹，与旧版本的matlab(2019, 2018…)兼容。

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

请注意，有几个更新的文件夹中使用了不同的公式作为beta函数。最新的一个使用了(1)类似的函数来表示没有指数幂的变量和变量(2)常数和变量没有指数幂的。你可以用这个。在本文的第2节，第3段中提到(对于恢复增益的参数在0-2之间为正值，而对于感染函数的指数幂的值为负的相似值，选择了一组合理的初始值)。我希望这对你有所帮助。

harendra辛格

Beta*e^u在你的论文中没有提到(只提到了Beta)，但它在Simulink块中使用。金宝app为什么?e^u的数学表达式是什么用，和s形函数表示，用，和s形函数表示。

伊斯梅尔·阿卜杜

为了优化参数(beta和gamma)，请使用Simulink工具“参数估计”，如下面的视频所述:金宝app

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ncihp1dbqx1p35m/Italy_Optimization.webm?dl=0

MATLAB版本兼容性
创建R2020b
兼容R2018a到R2020b
平台的兼容性
窗户 macOS Linux

社区寻宝

在MATLAB中心找到宝藏，并发现社区如何可以帮助你!

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SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_68 / R2019a

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_68 / R2019b

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_68 / R2020a

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_Zero / R2018a

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_Zero / R2018b

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_Zero / R2019a

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_Zero / R2019b

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 Previous_Versions / SimCOVID5 / SimCOVID4_M金宝appATLAB_Simulink / SimCOVID___V2.3 /模型/ SimCOVID / Newly_Added / Time_Change_Zero / R2020a

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 SimCOVID6 / DataSource1 /西珥

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 SimCOVID6 DataSource1 /先生

SimCOVID / SimCOVID6 SimCOVID6 / DataSource2